Project on Time Series

Project 4 yield 2012 1. Open the data file call(a)ed JCrew on Blackboard under the Assignments link. 2. Get a 4 tiptop Moving Average for the data employ Time Series Analysis. 3. Highlight the gross column and the 4MA column. inset /Line. 4. Go back to the data. Time Series Analysis/ Exponential Smoothing. Use alpha of . 7. 5. Highlight Revenue and Smoothed and Insert /Line. 6. Go back to the data. Time Series Analysis/ Trendline / pick Exp Ln. Check the Scatterplot and all boxes on the right side. 7. Finally, go back to the data and choose Time Series/ Deseasonalize. Questions 1.Compare the 4 pinnacle moving average chart to the exponentially smoothed one. Which one shows the SECULAR trend better? Explain. The quartet point moving average shows the secular trend better because its values arent as volatilizable as they are in the exponentially smoothed model. 2. What is the forecasted revenue for JCrew in Quarter I of 2010 using Exponential Smoothing? 377. 388 in Q1 of 2010 Lo ok at the Logged Model 3. What percent of the variation in Revenue is explained by Time? 84% of the variation is explained by time 4. By how much does Revenue change per draw off on average? Revenue changes by 4. % per quarter on average 5. Are there either outliers (suspicious or definite)? There is one outlier at time period 4, but it is only suspicious 6. Is Auto correlativity a problem? No because the Durbin-Watson is 2. 77 therefore reject fail to reject H0 H0 No residual correlation (p=0) H1 Positive residual correlation (p1) 7. Does the data seem to fit the plot salubrious? Explain. Yes it fits the plot well in general. There is one suspicious value that skews the plot. Look at the Deseasonalized Model 8. What is the secular trendline? y=10. 15x + 139. 39 9. How well does the model explain JCrews revenue? 94. 2% of the variation in Jcrews revenue is explained by the model 10. Which quarter is most fortunate for JCrew? 1st Quarter is the most prosperous for Jcrew with a se asonal index of . 898 11. Fill in the following table 2010 t Predicted SI augur QI 21 352. 54 . 898 316. 58 QII 22 362. 69 . 968 351. 08 QIII 23 372. 84 . 938 349. 72 QIV 24 382. 99 1. 196 458. 06